Specifying uncertainty

We now have established a graphical model of the chocolate investment project, and we will then add the required data.

We start out with the “Number of chocolate bars” node, and recall that this is an “Independent” node. This means that its value is affected only by its “local value”. The marketing research shows that the “Chocolate company” should be able to sell between 7000 and 15000 chocolate bars per day. Moreover, it is estimated that there is a 50% chance that the company will sell at least 10000 bars.